Sí 72.5% · No 27.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +8.8% · EV No -36.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Piteå W Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 62.3%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 49.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia Piteå W, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Piteå W +12.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 3/3
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
La estimación estadística justa es materialmente más alta que el mercado en Piteå W.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Piteå W.
- El modelo puede ver un enfrentamiento más lento o más igualado que el mercado.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piteå W | 62.26% | 49.31% | +12.9 pp |
| Empate | 19.05% | 25.7% | -6.7 pp |
| Brommapojkarna W | 18.69% | 24.99% | -6.3 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: Piteå W (+2.8% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+21.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+8.8% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Piteå W · Probabilidad del modelo 62.2%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 49.3%
EV línea de consenso: +2.8%
Más probable
2-1
Probabilidad 8.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 7.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +21.2% ·
EV inferior -52.0%
(1 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +8.8% · EV No -36.2%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +8.8% · EV No -36.2%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.85
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
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"draw": {
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},
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1513,
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"model_prob": 0.1908,
"p_final": 0.2391
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.484,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0624,
"ev": 0.0277,
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"p_final": 0.5555
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": -0.1177,
"edge_yes": 0.1177,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.362,
"ev_yes": 0.0875,
"implied_no": 0.3927,
"implied_yes": 0.6073,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": 0.1953,
"edge_under": -0.1953,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2121,
"ev_under": -0.5204,
"implied_over": 0.5867,
"implied_under": 0.4133,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.14,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.725,
"draw_prob": 0.1908,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.622,
"over_prob": 0.782,
"total_xg": 4.14,
"under_prob": 0.218,
"xg_diff": 1.2
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0624,
"ev": 0.0277,
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pite\u00e5 W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1177,
"ev": 0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.725,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1953,
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.782,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495491,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2121,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1872,
"draw": 0.1908,
"home": 0.622
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Brommapojkarna W",
"home": "Pite\u00e5 W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.126055,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.782,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495491,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:51:34.849106+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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